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    4.40 North Hill was impressive at a lower grade last time at Startford, there should be more improvement from him although there will need to be and I didn’t expect him to be favourite. Minella Rebellion has been disappointing so far but has a good pedigree and should improve for the better ground, he would be just about the lowest rated horse at Seven Barrows and he does look well handicapped on potential. He has travelled well through his races and has just looked a bit weak at present. Bletchley Castle has put 3 good runs together since returning from injury and looks solid. On a couple of bits of form first time cheek-pieced Quarenta is the best handicapped horse in the race, hugely disappointing at Newbury last time, although the winner is decent, he was beaten very quickly. This better ground should suit him and if the headgear works then he has a better chance than 8/1 suggests.

     

    5.45 Another Jonjo O’Neill horse looking to get back on track is Utility, who has a first time tongue tie on today and drops back to 2 miles. He also looks well handicapped on some form, this better ground will suit him, he has on-going breathing issues but that hasn’t stopped him winning. Our Three Sons won well last time at Stratford, that win came after a break of 228 days, if he can back that up then obvious chance. At a bigger price Darwins Theory at 14/1 isn’t over handicapped, all his best form has been on a softer surface but he should handle the better ground as long as it isn’t lighting fast.

     

    Warwick

     

    3.15 We have bet Honkytonktennessee the last twice when has won at Huntingdon and Stratford. Today’s race should be run to suit him and he should be capable of winning, his price is ok although carrying such a huge weight and another quick run at his price he makes less appeal. Ultimate Dream did well last time at Exeter pulling well clear with another well handicapped horse, he has been risen 12lbs for that and I think that is fair considering the distance they created. Anythingmayhappen looked fortunate last time at that form hasn’t worked out yet!

     

    3.50 Garrahalish is well handicapped but doesn’t look the same horse from a couple of seasons ago. Irish Thistle is another on the downgrade but is running well, Lemon’s Gent is only 1lb higher than his last winning mark but looks pretty exposed. Beyeh jumped well on enough on her chasing debut and return from a break, it is difficult to know what she actually achieved but is well handicapped on hurdles form, Midtech Valentine hasn’t yet taken to fences in 2 starts, the ground was too soft last time and previously at Doncaster, she took on horses who were in form over a two miles and was always on the back foot, she has been running well over hurdles and Aerlite Supreme is very well handicapped and could easily win this, he managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at Wetherby earlier in the season, so things have got to go his way.

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    29/04/2017 29 April 2017 | Comments (0)

    Sandown

     

    3.35 I may be wrong but I think Doing Fine is the wrong favourite, I appreciate that he has been running really well and his latest win was good at a lower grade, he is a strong traveller and this race should suit him, he comes here not having had a busy season but he needs to find a bit. The Druids Nephew is well handicapped and if the new headgear works he has a big chance, he used to need to go left handed but has shown himself fully effective this way round nowadays. He has had plenty of racing but has been kept fresh this season, I expected him to run better at Cheltenham last time out and I am not surprised he has a headgear change. The Young Master and Just A Par who have won the last 2 runnings have obvious chances. Rock The Kasbah should be a big player, his form is mostly on softer ground but I don’t think this surface will pose any problems and I would be pretty confident he will stay, still well handicapped and he has the profile that fits. This is not a vintage renewal and others have chances.

     

    4.10 For a horse with such a good strike rate The New One should really be shorter, he has had a busy season but the step up in trip looks sure to suit. He often looks to have a hard race but he seems to get the job done, I suppose people just look for style over substance, often!

     

    4.45 Shantou Village could/should be well handicapped, I was close to recommending him as a bet. His jumping has largely been good, a bit right handed and he has looked good on occasions. This is a bigger field than he has had to face over fences previously but that shouldn’t be a problem, if he gets into a rhythm he should prove difficult to beat.

     

    5.20 It is easy to see the support for Wait For Me stepping up in trip. Thomas Campbell has been unlucky in 2 handicap races, his Cheltenham form has been given a boost earlier in the week. Limited Reserve ran a cracker last time at Haydock and should prove even better over this trip. Duke Street, who was a bet last time at Cheltenham, when he didn’t quite see the trip should give his running. Silverhow sorted got the best ride last time, Stowaway Magic may need to travel better this time, Tree Of Liberty has been kept fresh and looks well handicapped on his Musselburgh win and Chelsea Flyer ran well last time out and he is progressing.

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    28/04/2017 28 April 2017 | Comments (0)

    Very late and again mostly races I would rather watch especially the evening meetings.

     

    Perth

     

    3.10 2 interesting horses making their debuts for new yards and both have first time headgear fitted. Definite Outcome has proved disappointing through the winter on deep ground after winning well on his chasing debut, he has always been a talented horse and should handle the better ground and drop in trip. West Wizard was recently bought by new connections, he is a horse I know plenty about and was given to me ages before he made his debut in a Kempton bumper, having been well bet, it was no good to me as he was always too short to be of interest. The story was his then owner wanted him to go to Ffos Las but the trainer insisted that he went to Kempton. He has a history of breaking blood vessels and has already had a good season, often horses with this problem are best fresh or a change of scenery, like today, helps.

     

    4.15 It is easy to see why last year’s winner Double Whammy has been so well bet, he was looked after last time when his chance had gone and this will have been his main aim, has a good chance of just 1lb higher than last season but his price for this race is skinny and it is unlikely he is as good as he was last year. Nakadam would be my pick, I think he will stay this far, his stable are in form and he ran another solid race last time. He doesn’t win often and has not ran right handed that often but he should be capable of winning from his current rating. Optimisitci Bias is another who has a good chance and comes here on the back of a confidence building win and at a big price Tikkandemickey is a slightly strange one, who often runs well but despite looking like he would do well over 3 miles has rarely ran over that distance, he it right up in trip here but he is one from one at the track.

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    27/04/2017 27 April 2017 | Comments (0)

    A busy day but mostly a watching brief for me. Nothing to report.

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