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  • 26/04/2017 26 April 2017 | Comments (0)

    Perth

     

    2.35 Gold Chain has been well bet after a good run back on the flat at Catterick, she was out-paced most of the way and did all her best work up the home straight, it was a strongly run race which clearly helped her. She has won 4 times at Perth and 3 have come over CD. She is also well handicapped on all her good form last summer, I thought she would be bigger and was initially put in much bigger, nowadays things like that don’t last long. I can make a really good case for her and 4/1 on her best form is a fair price, the “but” is she is not a lightly raced progressive mare, more a pretty exposed horse who has 2 ways of running.

     

    3.35 First time blinkers on the well handicapped A Good Skin, he has been well bet and his trainer has an excellent record in this race, winning 3 of the last 6 running’s, better ground also suits him well. Silver Tassie was placed in this last year and needs more if he is to win it this time around. Cultram Abbey was very unlucky last time out but finds himself burdened with another 4lbs, his best form is on softer ground, Beeves is a difficult horse to pass when in the mood, Cocktails At Dawn appears to have lost the plot, he hasn’t been the easiest horse to train but conditions are in his favour and Ballykan is back on better ground which is a huge benefit to him, he took a crashing fall at the Chair when last seen and he does have to convince he truly stays this 3 miles.

     

    4.40 Jovial Joey looks on the upgrade, Petite Power has had an excellent season since he has gone to Fergal O’Brien, Lord Ballim has looked a transformed character of late and Allthegear No Idea is well handicapped on his hurdles form and now steps up in trip over fences which should give him a much better chance.

     

    5.10 It was difficult not to be impressed by Great Fighter’s latest effort in a first time visor at Ayr 5 days ago, he will be difficult to beat in that form. We bet the now extremely well handicapped but difficult to train, Meadowcroft Boy in this race 2 years ago, when he finished a creditable 2nd. It is difficult to be confident how effective he can be of his current rating as he is clearly on the down-grade.

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    25/04/2017 25 April 2017 | Comments (0)

    No bet day today.

     

    Hexham is a total watch for me today.

     

    Ludlow

     

    2.35 According To Harry put in a really good effort last time over CD and the winner that day has won since, he needs a career best performance here but he does look like there may be more to come, at his price 13/8 I would either have to look elsewhere or no bet. By The Boardwalk was far enough behind him at Ludlow last time and whilst he may improve for the run the same can be said about ATH. Ballypoint has attracted support which isn’t unusual from this stable but he has a lot to find on what he has achieved so far, he may have had a breathing operation since we last saw him, but his win and best form is on much softer ground than today’s. I though Hedley Lamarr would run well last time at Stratford but he ran a shocker, first time cheek-pieces on today if they work he can win this, but I couldn’t recommend him as a bet.

     

    3.35 Noche De Reyes doesn’t have a brilliant record fresh, he has a good course and distance record, he handles this ground well and whilst he may improve a bit for the run, his stable are in good form and he is the best horse in the race and has the form to win this, if ready he wins. The Coffee Hunter is a danger on his chasing debut but he hasn’t reproduced anything like that in two runs since, back on this better ground and another coming here after a break can go well. Pembroke House usually runs his race but competes at a lower level, he is one of three who has to race from out of the handicap. Midnight Chorister is lower than his last winning rating but another who has never proved easy to predict and things have got to drop just right for him again in a normal race for this grade he would have little chance.

     

    4.10 Scarlet Minstrel returns after a break of 244 days and has first time visor fitted, showing a motion of intent. His 2 hurdles runs last summer are both good and the step up in trip should also be in his favour, despite his big weight he must have a good chance. Our Delboy is a bit over priced as  he should improve for the step up in trip and has been running creditably, Dragon De La Tour has cheek-pieces on for the first time today, he has looked like he needs something to help get his head in front and Whatthebutlersaw did well on this ground last year and he is another who looks a bit over-priced in an ordinary race.

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    24/04/2017 24 April 2017 | Comments (0)

    Warwick

     

    1.50 2 stand out on form Abbotswood and Bradford Bridge, I have no real opinion as I didn’t see much point in spending too long on the race, if pushed BB has the better form/chance.

     

    2.20 Quite a competitive handicap hurdle and I think there will be enough winners come out of this. Atlantic Storm was impressive when winning on handicap debut at Bangor, that was a weaker contest and I think he is too short at 7/4, obviously he comes from a stable in form and he is lightly raced and should have further improvement in him, but the same can be said about several of these. The Tailgater has fair form and the drop back in trip should suit him well, he travels well through his races which will help on today’s better ground, Druid’s Folly travelled well last time at Sandown but emptied up the straight on heavy ground, he has had a break and a corrective operation since then and should have more improvement. Earls Fort was in blinding form when last seen, he handles today’s conditions but needs to find more of a 10lbs higher mark than his latest win and Boy In A Bentley will probably do what he seems to do best travel better than most, look like winning and not win!

     

    2.50 The Tourard Man won this last year of the same handicap rating, despite being 11 years old must have another sound chance. Golden Doyen finished behind him at both Cheltenham and Aintree festivals and as such has a bit to do to reverse that form. Thumb Stone Blues makes his handicap debut and stepping to 3 miles 1 furlong, he has some useful form and it is easy to make a case for him, that fact has not been lost on the odds compilers. Robin Of Locksley looked unlucky last time at Haydock, his previous win came around here on debut for Caroline Bailey. That was impressive but now finds himself 15lbs higher in a much stronger race.

     

    3.25 Doitforthevillage has been hugely consistent all season and is capable at this 2 miles or further. I personally think that he needs not to be in front too soon but sure to go well again. Contre Tous has really turned a corner, he has been raised just 5lbs for his latest win but this is a stronger race. I’dliketheoption could be the value if he has improved for his recent Ludlow race.

     

    3.55 Global Dream seems to give himself a difficult task and often finishes strongly so this extended trip should help. I think Herbert Park who is a talented horse and back on better ground should go close, there are enough negatives with and the stable could be in better form but he is a capable horse when the stars are aligned. 

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    23/04/2017 23 April 2017 | Comments (0)

    Small fields and fast ground, little makes much appeal from a betting view but again it is important to do the analysis, watch the racing and see if you were correct or why you got it wrong.

     

    Stratford

     

    2.00 Jack Snipe comes back after a break and has to race of a 12lbs higher mark, there should still be more to come from him. Mister Dick another coming back this time after 153 days off the track, he is only a five year old and this almost 3 ½ miles may find him out but at least it is a low grade and he should have more progress than most in this. Sgt Bull Berry is out of form, The Last Bridge has always been a difficult ride and probably an even more difficult horse to predict how he will run. Trehan Cross is a bit inconsistent and I would have concerns about the faster ground, because there is no evidence she will like it and on pedigree it would be a negative.

     

    2.30 Honkytonktennessee was a bet on Bank Holiday Monday, he reverts to hurdles today of a 5lbs higher mark. I think the Monday race will prove strong form at this level, as he and the 2nd horse, who improved for headgear, pulled a minute clear of the rest. Must have a big chance if over his race and he can reproduce that form over hurdles. Shoofly Milly should get an easy lead which will suit her well, she usually races on much softer going and again I can’t see this surface as a positive move for her. Derrick D’Anjou has first time blinkers on today, he ran well las time out at Southwell, it is understandable why he has the headgear on today, faster ground may also help him.

     

    3.35 There is no doubt Altiepix has the ability to win today, he looked to have gone wrong when pulled up here 41 days ago, but clearly it wasn’t anything too serious, he has a good chance without appealing on his overall record. Storming Strumpet ran well in the week @ Cheltenham and having raced out of the handicap on that occasion is able to race of a 10lbs lower rating today, but it is only 3 days since she ran and has yet to strike over fences and Blandfords Gunner is a horse I thought connections would do really well with, so it is more than a bit disappointing that he hasn’t looked like the well handicapped horse I thought he was.

     

    4.10 An interesting race but one in which I have nothing more than a passing interest in.

     

    4.40 Baraza in first time blinkers, he is a full brother to Nacarat, which the stable and owner had such a good time with. So to say he is proving disappointing is putting it mildly, if the blinkers work and he will have company up front or may take a lead, either I think will suit him then he must go close. I think he is better than his rating and a better horse than recent CD winner Deise Vu, who wasn’t winning out of turn, but has settled better of late which is helping him progress. Ballycash ran in 5 Irish points winning one, but he finished 5th in a point which has produced some very talented horses. He should do better over fences and has been well bet, I think he will need further to be seen at his best and this is a sharp track on fast ground. A really interesting runner is The Wexfordian another who is well handicapped, he doesn’t look totally genuine but he is a strong traveller and handles the ground. He needs producing late and it may be a case that he only has one run. He looks a typical horse who can run above recent form on his debut for a new stable.

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